The role of precautionary and speculative demand in the global market for crude oil
将原油市场的预防性需求与投机需求从存储需求冲击中分离出来，发现不确定性驱动的预防性需求是过去与存储需求冲击相关的油价波动的主要驱动因素，对1970年代以来的油价动态有显著影响。
Summary Contemporary structural models of the global market for crude oil jointly specify precautionary and speculative demand shocks as a composite shock, named a storage demand shock. We resolve this identification problem and examine the effects of these distinct shocks, along with conventional demand and supply shocks, on the global price of crude oil. We find that uncertainty driven precautionary demand for crude oil is, on average, the primary driver of real price of oil fluctuations that have previously been associated with storage demand shocks. Historically, these shocks have had distinct effects on the real oil price dynamics since the 1970s.