Inflationary Household Uncertainty Shocks
使用欧元区家庭不确定性调查数据，发现家庭不确定性冲击会推高失业率和通胀，并通过预防性定价和储蓄行为等机制发挥作用。
Abstract I use a survey‐based measure of household uncertainty for the Euro area and show that household uncertainty shocks raise unemployment and are inflationary in Europe. On top of conventional recursive identification schemes, I make use of narrative proxy and narrative sign and ratio restrictions identification strategies to verify the robustness of the results. I document evidence in support of an increase in markups and to some extent also savings and labor supply consistent with precautionary pricing, and precautionary savings behavior by households. As precautionary pricing behavior is motivated by firms' uncertainty, other inflationary mechanisms may also be at work.