Forward Guidance and Heterogeneous Beliefs
研究发现，央行低利率前瞻指引可能被解读为经济疲软或宽松政策，利用专业预测者调查数据证实两种解读并存，并在新凯恩斯模型中分析异质性信念带来的政策权衡。
Central banks’ announcements that rates are expected to remain low could signal either a weak macroeconomic outlook, which would slow expenditures, or a more accommodative stance, which may stimulate economic activity. We use the Survey of Professional Forecasters to show that, when the Fed gave guidance between 2011:III and 2012:IV, these two interpretations coexisted despite a consensus on low expected rates. We rationalize these facts in a New-Keynesian model where heterogeneous beliefs introduce a trade-off in forward guidance policy: leveraging on the optimism of those who believe in monetary easing comes at the cost of inducing excess pessimism in non-believers.