Current Account Dynamics and the Terms of Trade: Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Two Generations Later
研究小型开放经济在贸易条件和世界利率外生变化下，储蓄与投资动态如何导致经常账户周期，并指出经典的哈伯格-劳森-梅茨勒效应在参数合理时符号可正可负。
This is a study of the current account dynamics resulting from the savings and investment dynamics in a small open economy which is subject to exogenous changes in its terms of trade and in world interest rates. Anticipated and unanticipated, as well as temporary and permanent, terms of trade changes have very different effects. There is, however, a general tendency towards cycles in both savings and investment, which gives rise to cycles in the current account. It is shown that the classic Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect on saving of a terms of trade deterioration can have any sign for plausible parameter values, both for temporary and permanent disturbances.