Decomposing the Ins and Outs of Cyclical Unemployment
利用当前人口调查数据，分解经济上行和下行时期就业状态转换率的差异，发现失业持续时间对失业者找到工作的贡献在深度衰退中由正转负，而人口构成效应影响失业者退出劳动力市场并减弱失业流入的周期性。
Abstract This paper analyses the contribution of the composition of the pool of employed and unemployed individuals to labour market dynamics in different phases of the business cycle. Using individual‐level data from the Current Population Survey (CPS), we decompose differences in employment status transition rates between upswings and downturns into explained and unexplained parts. We find that the duration of unemployment contributes to explaining unemployment outflows to employment and observe that its initially positive contribution turns negative in deep recessions. Composition effects play an important role for unemployment outflows to non‐participation but dampen the cyclicality of unemployment inflows from employment.