Reverse hysteresis? Persistent effects of autonomous demand expansions
研究了1960-2015年间OECD国家126次需求扩张对GDP、失业率等的长期影响，发现正向需求冲击也有持续效应，对理解需求驱动增长和滞后模型有参考价值。
Abstract Empirical works documenting highly persistent effects of negative demand shocks (‘hysteresis’) have questioned the prevailing wisdom that potential output is exogenous to aggregate demand fluctuations. We assess whether the effects of positive demand shocks also tend to persist beyond the short run. We estimate the impact of 126 aggregate demand expansions in OECD countries between 1960 and 2015 through local projections, using a dynamic two-way fixed-effects model and a propensity score-based specification. We find that demand expansions exert positive persistent effects on GDP, participation rate and capital stock. Effects on the unemployment rate and productivity are also strong and quite persistent, but evidence regarding their permanence is mixed. The effect on the inflation rate is positive but small and imprecisely estimated, and there is no sign of accelerating inflation. Our results bear relevant implications for existing models of hysteresis and for theories of demand-led growth.