News, sentiment and capital flows
实证研究了“新闻”（预期未来生产率上升）和“情绪”（与未来生产率无关的乐观情绪）两类预期冲击对总资本流动的影响，发现两者解释了80%以上的变动，其中情绪冲击贡献最大。
We examine empirically the effect of two types of shocks related to expectations – "news" (increases in expected future productivity) and "sentiment" (surges in optimism unrelated to future productivity) – on gross capital flows. These two shocks together explain more than 80% of the variation in gross capital flows at all horizons, with the largest part being due to sentiment shocks. Both these shocks drive a positive correlation between gross inflows and outflows but only sentiments shocks generate procyclical gross flows. We show that sentiment shocks are not accounted for by financial, monetary or uncertainty shocks, nor are they purely global. The empirical effect of news and sentiment shocks constitute a challenge to most theories of capital flows, but are consistent with the existence of asymmetric information between domestic and foreign investors about the country's fundamentals.