Heads or Tails: The Impact of a Coin Toss on Major Life Decisions and Subsequent Happiness
通过大规模随机实地实验，发现面临重大决策（如辞职或分手）时，抛硬币结果指示改变的人更可能做出改变，且六个月后对决策更满意、更幸福，说明人们可能过于谨慎。
Abstract Little is known about whether people make good choices when facing important decisions. This article reports on a large-scale randomized field experiment in which research subjects having difficulty making a decision flipped a coin to help determine their choice. For important decisions (e.g. quitting a job or ending a relationship), individuals who are told by the coin toss to make a change are more likely to make a change, more satisfied with their decisions, and happier six months later than those whose coin toss instructed maintaining the status quo. This finding suggests that people may be excessively cautious when facing life-changing choices.