Family Planning and Development: Aggregate Effects of Contraceptive Use
将非自愿生育嵌入世代交叠模型，用肯尼亚数据模拟发现：小规模政府预算下，计划生育干预比补贴基础教育更能提升长期生活水平。
Abstract What is the role of family planning interventions on fertility, savings, human capital investment and development? To examine this, endogenous unwanted fertility is embedded in an otherwise standard quantity–quality overlapping generations model of fertility and growth. The model features costly fertility control and families can (partially) insure against a fertility risk by using costly modern contraceptives. In the event of unexpected pregnancies, households can also opt to abort some pregnancies, at a cost. Given the number of children born, parents decide how much education to provide and how much to save out of their income. We fit the model to Kenyan data, implement several family planning policies and decompose their aggregate effects. Our results suggest that with a small government budget (say, up to 0.5% of GDP), family planning interventions might be more cost-effective in improving long-run living standards than policies that subsidise basic education.