经济政策不确定性与动量效应

Economic policy uncertainty and momentum

Financial Management · 2020
被引 31
人大 A-ABS 3

中文导读

研究发现经济政策不确定性(EPU)上升会显著降低股票动量策略的收益,原因在于低EPU环境下基金资金流追逐业绩的机制更有效,从而产生更强的动量。

Abstract

Abstract We show that a news‐based measure of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) negatively forecasts momentum. A 1‐standard‐deviation increase in EPU is associated with a 1.11% decrease in risk‐adjusted momentum returns. The predictive power of EPU is robust after controlling for previously documented economic state variables and macroeconomic uncertainty. We provide an explanation for these results from the perspective of a fund flow‐induced trading mechanism and offer direct empirical support. The literature documents that momentum can be partially attributed to performance‐chasing mutual fund flows. We find that this flow‐induced mechanism functions more effectively in low EPU states, thereby generating stronger stock momentum.

经济政策不确定性动量效应基金流量风险调整收益