Expectations Formation, Sticky Prices, and the ZLB
研究了零利率下限下，基于层级思维（一种有限理性）的预期形成机制，发现其避免了理性预期模型中的反转谜题和过大的财政乘数，并建议更长期地维持低名义利率。
Abstract At the zero lower bound (ZLB), expectations about the future path of monetary or fiscal policy are crucial. We model expectations formation under level‐ thinking, a form of bounded rationality formalized by García‐Schmidt and Woodford (2019) and Farhi and Werning (2019), consistent with experimental evidence. This process does not lead to a number of puzzling features from rational expectations models, such as the reversal puzzle, or implausible large fiscal multipliers. Optimal monetary policy at the ZLB under level‐ thinking prescribes keeping the nominal rate lower for longer, but short‐run macro‐economic stabilization is less powerful compared to rational expectations.