LONG‐RUN FACTOR ACCUMULATION AND PRODUCTIVITY TRENDS IN ITALY
利用1861年以来的劳动力和资本存量历史数据，重新评估意大利经济发展的直接原因，发现初级部门规模大且生产率低、全要素生产率增长缓慢阻碍了统一后的发展，而二战后制造业扩张和TFP强劲增长是主要驱动力，1993年后服务业生产率低迷和资本积累不足导致经济表现不佳。
Abstract In this article, we employ a novel historical reconstruction of labour and capital stock data since 1861 in order to reassess the proximate causes of Italy's economic development in a historical perspective. Amongst many new findings, our estimates slightly reduce the role of industry in Italy's first growth spurt at the beginning of the 20th century and amplify the severity of the Great Depression years relative to the existing literature. In general, Italy's post‐unification development was hindered by the large size of its poorly productive primary sector and by sluggish total factor productivity (TFP); expanding manufacturing and strong TFP dynamics were instead the main drivers of the country's impressive post‐World War II growth spurt. The disappointing performance of the Italian economy since 1993 is explained largely by slow labour productivity dynamics in the now dominant services sector and, more generally, by weak aggregate TFP growth and subdued capital accumulation.