Changing Gambling Behavior through Experiential Learning
在南非开展随机田野实验，通过掷骰子游戏模拟中奖概率，发现体验式学习能有效纠正人们对彩票中奖概率的认知偏差，从而减少赌博行为。
Abstract This paper tests experiential learning as a debiasing tool to reduce gambling in South Africa, through a randomized field experiment. The study implements a simple, interactive game that simulates the odds of winning the national lottery through dice rolling. Participants first roll one die until they obtain a six, followed by two dice until they roll 2 sixes. They are then informed that the probability of winning the lottery jackpot is equivalent to rolling all sixes with nine dice. The results show that individuals who need many attempts to roll 2 sixes play the lottery significantly less than the control group, while those who need fewer attempts adopt the opposite behavior. These findings provide practical guidance for designing interventions to give individuals brief experiences that correct biases in their beliefs.