Domestic versus foreign drivers of trade (im)balances: How robust is evidence from estimated DSGE models?
用更灵活的方法重新估计德国和西班牙的多区域DSGE模型，发现即使放松理论限制，国内冲击仍是贸易平衡的主要驱动因素，但国外冲击的传导有所增强。
Estimated DSGE models tend to ascribe a significant and often predominant part of a country's trade balance (TB) dynamics to domestic drivers ("shocks"), suggesting foreign factors to be only of secondary importance. This paper revisits the result based on more agnostic approaches to shock transmission and using "agnostic structural disturbances". We estimate multi-region models for Germany and Spain as countries with very distinct TB patterns since 1999. Results suggest that domestic drivers remain dominant when theory-based restrictions on shock transmission are relaxed, although the transmission of foreign shocks is strengthened.