Flood Risk Perception in the Housing Market and the Impact of a Major Flood Event
利用科罗拉多州一次严重洪水的淹没范围数据，区分被淹房产和“险些被淹”房产，通过三重差分法发现被淹房产价格下降而险些被淹房产价格相对上升，揭示了风险感知的偏差。
The impact of flood events on flood risk perception has important implications for policy. Applying a novel dataset featuring the flooding extents from a severe event in Colorado, we disentangle inundated properties from "near misses," defined as structures not directly flooded but located inside the 100-year floodplain. Using a triple-difference hedonic framework, we show that inundated properties inside the floodplain underwent a decrease in price after the flood, while near misses saw a relative price increase. We speculate that inundated properties are perceived as being riskier and near misses relatively less risky, suggesting the possible influence of the availability heuristic or Bayesian learning. (