Rotation as Contagion Mitigation
研究组织在社交距离限制下，通过轮换不同群体上班来降低感染风险，发现轮换频率取决于组织对感染的反应速度，快速反应时频繁轮换最优，慢速反应时低频轮换更佳。
To prevent the spread of an infection, an organization obeys social distancing restrictions and thus limits the number of its members physically present on a given day. We study rotation schemes in which mutually exclusive groups are active on different days. The frequency of rotation affects risk over the duration of diffusion prior to the time the organization is able to react to the infection. If this reaction time is speedy, then such risk is undesirable because prevalence is initially convex in time. In this case, frequent rotation acts as insurance against exposure-time risk and is optimal. Infrequent rotation becomes optimal if the organization reacts slowly. Cross-mixing of the rotating subpopulations is detrimental because it increases contacts between sick and healthy individuals. However, the effect of mixing is small if the terminal prevalence is low in the absence of mixing. This paper was accepted by Joshua Gans, business strategy.