Demand Learning and Firm Dynamics: Evidence from Exporters
研究企业如何通过贝叶斯学习了解市场需求，发现年轻企业对需求冲击的反应更敏感，且不确定性会削弱学习效果，对理解企业出口行为有参考价值。
Abstract This paper provides direct evidence that learning about demand is an important driver of firms’ dynamics. We present a model of Bayesian learning in which firms are uncertain about idiosyncratic demand in each market and update their beliefs as noisy information arrives. Firms update their beliefs to a given demand shock more, the younger they are. We test and empirically confirm this prediction, using the structure of the model, together with exporter-level data, to identify demand shocks and the firms’ beliefs about future demand. Consistent with theory, we also find the learning process to be weakened in more uncertain environments.