House Prices and Growth with Fixed Land Supply
在动态一般均衡框架下分析长期住房成本和居住模式,发现交通改善速度对土地和房价演变至关重要,并给出平衡增长路径上房价稳定的条件。
Abstract We analyse housing costs and patterns of residential development over the long term in a dynamic general equilibrium. We show that in a growing economy the speed of travel improvements is crucial to the evolution of land and house prices. We derive a condition for the rate of change in transport efficiency that generates flat land and house prices on a balanced growth path. We present evidence that this condition was satisfied in many countries between the mid-nineteenth century and the mid-twentieth century, but since then passenger transport improvements have slowed down with major implications for how house prices evolve.