Boom or Gloom? Examining the Dutch Disease in Two-speed Economies
传统荷兰病研究忽视资源部门对其他部门的生产力溢出，本文构建理论模型并用贝叶斯动态因子模型量化溢出效应，以澳大利亚和挪威为例发现资源繁荣对非资源部门有显著生产力溢出。
Traditional studies of the Dutch disease do not account for productivity spillovers between the booming resource sector and other domestic sectors. We put forward a simple theory model that allows for such spillovers. We then identify and quantify these spillovers using a Bayesian dynamic factor model. The model allows for resource movements and spending effects through a large panel of variables, while also identifying disturbances to other shocks. Using Australia and Norway as representative cases studies, we find that a booming resource sector has substantial productivity spillovers on non‐resource sectors, effects that have not been captured in previous analysis.