Inflation Expectations and the Pass-Through of Oil Prices
利用结构VAR模型分析全球石油市场，发现不同油价冲击对通胀预期和实际通胀的影响不同，经济活动冲击的影响更持久，并解释了金融危机期间的通缩谜题。
Abstract Inflation expectations and the associated pass-through of oil price shocks depend on demand and supply conditions underlying the global oil market. We establish this result using a structural VAR model of the global oil market that jointly identifies transmissions of oil demand and supply shocks through real oil prices to both expected and actual inflation. We demonstrate that economic activity shocks have a significantly longer-lasting effect on inflation expectations and actual inflation than other types of real oil price shocks, and resolve disagreements around the role of oil prices in explaining the missing deflation puzzle of the Great Recession.