Credit Allocation Under Economic Stimulus: Evidence from China
研究中国2009-2010年经济刺激计划期间信贷在企业间的分配及其实际影响，发现信贷扩张偏向国有企业和资本生产率较低的企业，逆转了2008年前资本向私营企业再分配的过程。
Abstract We study credit allocation across firms and its real effects during China’s economic stimulus plan of 2009–2010. We match confidential loan-level data from the nineteen largest Chinese banks with firm-level data on manufacturing firms. We document that the stimulus-driven credit expansion disproportionately favored state-owned firms and firms with a lower average product of capital, reversing the process of capital reallocation toward private firms that characterized China’s high growth before 2008. We argue that implicit government guarantees for state-connected firms become more prominent during recessions and can explain this reversal. Received August 23, 2017; editorial decision November 15, 2018 by Editor Philip Strahan.