Real‐Time Perceptions of Historical GDP Data Uncertainty*
研究了英国央行发布的实时GDP增长扇形图准确性，发现仅用历史修正数据就能准确量化不确定性，并通过在线调查揭示专家对GDP数据不确定性的认知差异，呼吁加强数据不确定性沟通。
Abstract GDP is measured with error. But data uncertainty is rarely communicated quantitatively in real‐time. An exception are the fan charts for historical real GDP growth published by the Bank of England. To assess how well data uncertainty is understood, we first evaluate the accuracy of the historical fan charts. We find that data uncertainties can be accurately quantified, even without judgement, using past revisions data. Secondly, we conduct an online survey to gauge perceptions of GDP data uncertainty across a wider set of experts. Our results call for greater communication of data uncertainties to anchor experts' dispersed expectations.