Trade Flows and Fiscal Multipliers
研究了在浮动汇率下，国际贸易如何影响财政乘数的大小，发现更开放的经济体可能有更大的财政乘数，即使财政扩张导致贸易逆差。
Abstract We present novel insights on the role of international trade following unanticipated fiscal changes in a flexible exchange rate environment. We show analytically that fiscal multipliers can be larger in economies more open to trade, even when fiscal expansions imply trade deficits. Three factors determine how trade linkages matter: the relative import share of public and private goods, the financing of government debt, and the currency invoicing of exports. A Bayesian prior-predictive analysis shows that a quantitative model bears the same predictions. Conditioning on Canadian and U.S. data, we find support for larger multipliers relative to a counterfactually closed economy.