Good Booms, Bad Booms
研究发现信贷繁荣并不都导致危机，只有伴随生产率大幅下降的“坏繁荣”才会引发危机，并构建模型解释这一机制，对宏观审慎政策制定者有用。
Abstract Credit booms are not rare, some end in a crisis (bad booms) whereas others do not (good booms). We document that credit booms start with an increase in productivity growth, which subsequently falls faster during bad booms. We develop a model in which a crisis happens when a credit boom transits toward an information regime with careful examination of collateral. As this examination is more valuable when collateral backs projects with low productivity, crises are more likely during booms that display larger productivity declines. We test the main predictions of the model and identify the default probability as the main component of measured productivity that lies behind crises.