When Tariffs Disrupt Global Supply Chains
研究了企业间供应关系下意外关税的影响，通过模型校准美国对华关税数据，发现总体福利损失为GDP的0.12%，主要来自投入品采购变化和搜索成本。
We study unanticipated tariffs in a setting with firm-to-firm supply relationships. Firms conduct costly searches and negotiate with potential suppliers that pass a reservation level of match productivity. Global supply chains form in anticipation of free trade. Then, the home government surprises with an input tariff. This can lead to renegotiation with initial suppliers or search for replacements. Calibrating the model’s parameters to match initial import shares and the estimated responses to the US tariffs imposed on China, we find an overall welfare loss of 0.12 percent of GDP, with substantial contributions from changes in input sourcing and search costs.