Too Much Trust in Group Decisions: Uncovering Hidden Profiles by Groups and Markets
研究比较了群体和市场在隐藏信息任务中的表现，发现无利益冲突时群体更优，有利益冲突时市场更优，但人们普遍更信任群体。
A crucial challenge for organizations is to pool and aggregate information effectively. Traditionally, organizations have relied on committees and teams, but recently many organizations have explored the use of information markets. In this paper, the authors compared groups and markets in their ability to pool and aggregate information in a hidden-profiles task. In Study 1, groups outperformed markets when there were no conflicts of interest among participants, whereas markets outperformed groups when conflicts of interest were present. Also, participants had more trust in groups to uncover hidden profiles than in markets. Study 2 generalized these findings to a simple prediction task, confirming that people had more trust in groups than in markets. These results were not qualified by conflicts of interest. Drawing on experienced forecasters from Good Judgment Open, Study 3 found that familiarity and experience with markets increased the endorsement and use of markets relative to traditional committees.