THE FACE VALUE OF ARGUMENTS WITH AND WITHOUT MANIPULATION
研究发送者如何通过私人实验或操纵来产生令人惊讶的结果以说服接收者，发现说服的质量阈值会影响实验和操纵的激励，并建议对不可操纵的研究方法设定更高的质量阈值。
Abstract A sender wishes to persuade a receiver with a (surprising) result that challenges the prior belief. The result stems either from sequential private experimentation or manipulation. The incentive to experiment and to manipulate depends on the quality threshold for persuasion. Higher thresholds make it harder to find a surprising outcome via experimentation and may encourage manipulation. Suppose there are observable nonmanipulable and manipulable research methods. For the decision quality, the quality threshold for persuasion for nonmanipulable methods should be higher than for manipulable methods. We discuss philosophy of science implications, such as field contingent quality standards and P ‐value adjustments.