Policy Language and Information Effects in the Early Days of Federal Reserve Forward Guidance
研究发现，美联储公开市场委员会的前瞻指引语言类型影响市场对政策声明的反应：2000-2003年侧重经济前景风险时，利率预期下降导致股市下跌、GDP增长预期下降、失业率上升；2003-2006年增加政策倾向指引后，相同利率预期变化产生相反效果。
I show that the nature of the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC’s) forward guidance language shapes the private sector’s responses to monetary policy statements. From February 2000 to June 2003, the FOMC only gave forward guidance about economic outlook risks, and a decrease in the expected federal funds rate path caused stock prices to fall, GDP growth forecasts to fall, and the unemployment rate to rise. From August 2003 to May 2006, the FOMC added forward guidance about policy inclinations, and a decrease in the expected federal funds rate path had the opposite effects. These results suggest that forward guidance that emphasizes economic outlook risks causes stronger information effects than forward guidance that emphasizes policy inclinations.