FEAR Index, city characteristics, and housing returns
利用谷歌搜索频率构建衡量住房市场负面情绪的恐惧指数,发现该指数与住房回报负相关,且市场财务困境程度和冷热状态会增强这种关系,衰退期房价对负面情绪更敏感。
Abstract We use Google search frequency to construct a measure of aggregate sentiment in housing markets— Financial, Economic, and Real Estate (FEAR) Index —and analyze its relationship to housing returns. We find that housing markets react inversely to changes in FEAR Index , which captures negative sentiment, and that market characteristics affect the strength of this relationship. More financially distressed markets, as measured by bankruptcy rates and mortgage default double trigger, are more responsive to changes in FEAR Index than less distressed markets, and cold markets (markets with slow price appreciation) are more responsive than hot markets (markets with rapid price appreciation). We also examine these characteristics jointly and find that cold markets with financial distress are the most responsive to negative sentiment. Finally, we show that home prices are more sensitive to negative sentiment during recessionary periods.