The Cyclicality of Sales and Aggregate Price Flexibility
研究发现英美CPI微观数据中促销频率呈强逆周期，大萧条期间翻倍；构建一般均衡模型解释这一现象，并预测促销会放大货币紧缩后的价格下降，减弱实际消费的响应。
Abstract Macroeconomists traditionally ignore temporary price markdowns (“sales”) under the assumption that they are unrelated to aggregate phenomena. We revisit this view. First, we provide robust evidence from the U.K. and U.S. CPI micro data that the frequency of sales is strongly countercyclical, as much as doubling during the Great Recession. Second, we build a general equilibrium model in which cyclical sales arise endogenously as retailers try to attract bargain hunters. The calibrated model fits well the business cycle co-movement of sales with consumption and hours worked, and the strong substitution between market work and shopping time documented in the time-use literature. The model predicts that after a monetary contraction, the heightened use of discounts by firms amplifies the fall in the aggregate price level, attenuating by a third the one-year response of real consumption.