A Natural Experiment on Job Insecurity and Fertility in France
利用1999年法国提高大企业解雇老年工人税负的自然实验，发现年轻工人工作不安全感增加导致其生育率下降3.7个百分点，且仅影响家庭规模而非是否生育，对低收入和低教育工人无此效应。
Abstract Job insecurity can have wide-ranging consequences outside of the labor market. A 1999 rise in the French layoff tax paid by large private firms when they laid off older workers made younger workers less secure; this insecurity reduced their fertility by 3.7 percentage points (with a 95% confidence interval between 0.7 and 6.6 percentage points). Reduced fertility is found only at the intensive margin: job insecurity reduces family size but not the probability of parenthood itself. Our results also suggest negative selection into parenthood, as this fertility effect does not appear for low-income and less-educated workers.