The Economic Impact of the Black Death
这篇论文回顾了黑死病作为欧洲历史上最大人口冲击的起源、传播和死亡率，分析了其对工资、人均收入、经济地理、农奴制、宗教权威和国家力量的短期与长期影响，并探讨了与“大分流”和“小分流”的关联。
The Black Death was the largest demographic shock in European history. We review the evidence for the origins, spread, and mortality of the disease. We document that it was a plausibly exogenous shock to the European economy and trace out its aggregate and local impacts in both the short run and the long run. The initial effect of the plague was highly disruptive. Wages and per capita income rose. But, in the long run, this rise was only sustained in some parts of Europe. The other indirect long-run effects of the Black Death are associated with the growth of Europe relative to the rest of the world, especially Asia and the Middle East (the Great Divergence), a shift in the economic geography of Europe toward the northwest (the Little Divergence), the demise of serfdom in western Europe, a decline in the authority of religious institutions, and the emergence of stronger states. Finally, avenues for future research are laid out.