EXPECTATIONS, STAGNATION, AND FISCAL POLICY: A NONLINEAR ANALYSIS
在一个包含适应性学习的非线性随机新凯恩斯模型中，研究了悲观预期冲击如何使经济陷入停滞，以及财政刺激、前瞻指引、信贷摩擦和央行可信度等因素对摆脱停滞的影响。
Abstract Stagnation and fiscal policy are examined in a nonlinear stochastic New‐Keynesian model with adaptive learning. There are three steady states. The steady state targeted by policy is locally but not globally stable under learning. A severe pessimistic expectations shock can trap the economy in a stagnation regime, underpinned by a low‐level steady state, with falling inflation and output. A large fiscal stimulus may be needed to avoid or emerge from stagnation, and the impacts of forward guidance, credit frictions, central bank credibility, and policy delay are studied. Our model encompasses a wide range of outcomes arising from pessimistic expectations shocks.