Generational Distribution of Fiscal Burdens: A Positive Analysis
构建世代交叠模型分析人口老龄化对财政政策的影响，发现老龄化促使政府提高资本和劳动所得税率及债务比率，并用日本和美国数据模拟验证。
Abstract This study presents an overlapping generations model to analyze the impact of population aging on fiscal policy and intergenerational fiscal burden. Aging populations incentivize governments to increase capital and labor income tax rates and the public debt‐to‐GDP ratio, consistent with OECD evidence. Our model‐based simulation for Japan and the United States (2000–2070) reveals that Japan will experience higher labor income tax rates, a greater public debt‐to‐GDP ratio, and a lower government expenditure‐to‐GDP ratio compared to the United States. From 2040 onward, Japan is predicted to surpass the United States in terms of the capital tax rate.