The Economic Origins of Conflict in Africa
研究全球粮食价格冲击如何影响非洲地方暴力：在产粮区，粮价上涨减少争夺领土的冲突，但增加争夺剩余产品的冲突；在非产粮区则两种冲突都增加。
We study the impact of global food price shocks on local violence across Africa. In food-producing areas, higher prices reduce conflict over the control of territory (“factor conflict”) and increase conflict over the appropriation of surplus (“output conflict”). We argue that this difference arises because higher prices increase the opportunity cost of soldiering for producers while simultaneously inducing consumers to appropriate surplus as real wages fall. In areas without crop agriculture, higher prices increase both forms of conflict. We validate our local-level findings on output conflict using survey data. Our findings help reconcile a growing but ambiguous literature on the economic roots of conflict.