Premature deindustrialisation: the international evidence
研究利用发达国家、新兴经济体和发展中国家的大面板数据，验证了除东亚国家外的新兴和发展中国家存在过早去工业化现象，并分析了贸易开放、金融开放等全球化因素对不同国家组去工业化的差异化影响。
Abstract We examine patterns and globalisation-related causes of premature deindustrialisation (PD) in recent decades, using a large panel of advanced, emerging and developing economies (AE, EME and DE). The results verify the existence of PD in EME and DE, except East Asian countries. African countries have been worst affected by PD. Globalisation-related determinants of PD vary across country groups. While trade openness leads to deindustrialisation in DE; it enhances ‘dependent’ industrialisation in Latin American countries and the ‘factory economies’ of East Asia, which have stronger linkages to global value chains. Financial openness fosters industrialisation in severely finance-constrained economies, whereas it brings about deindustrialisation in financially stronger ones. It is our contention that development possibilities can be expanded by aiming at more intense linkages to global value chains, but proactive industrial policies at the levels of EME and DE are required to achieve such expansion.