When Reinforcing Processes Generate an Outcome-Quality Dip
研究发现，当消费者选择受质量和过往流行度共同影响时，中等流行度的产品质量可能低于低流行度产品，这种非单调关系源于强化过程，对市场学习、个体评估和新创企业评价构成挑战。
When does market success indicate superior merit? We show that when consumer choices between products with equal prices depend on quality but also on past popularity, more popular products are not necessarily of higher quality. Rather, a medium level of popularity may be associated with lower quality than lower levels of popularity. Using a formal model, we show that this kind of nonmonotonic association occurs when reinforcing processes are strong. More generally, a dip can occur when outcomes depend on both quality and resources and the latter are allocated bimodally, with some being given a lot of resources and most receiving little. Empirically, we illustrate that such a dip occurs in the association between movie theater sales and ratings. The presence of a dip in the outcome-quality association complicates learning from market outcomes and evaluation of individuals and new ventures, challenges the legitimacy of stratification systems, and creates opportunities for sophisticated evaluators who understand the dip.