Partisan Shocks and Financial Markets: Evidence from Close National Elections
研究了1945年后全球758次全国大选中，左翼政党获胜对股票和债券市场的短期影响，发现左翼胜利导致股市估值显著下降，而主权债券市场反应平淡。
This paper estimates the effect of partisan electoral victories on stock and bond markets. We employ a regression-discontinuity-based event study in a sample of 758 worldwide post-1945 national elections, using existing data on parliamentary elections and newly collected data on presidential elections. Left-wing electoral victories cause significant and substantial short-term decreases in stock market valuations, while the response of sovereign bond markets is mostly muted. Stock market effects are stronger and more persistent in elections in which the left’s proposed economic policy is more radical and in developing economies.