SVAR (Mis)Identification and the Real Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks
指出近期关于货币政策传导的实证研究看似矛盾，实则都符合同一标准宏观模型。弱符号约束将扩张性需求与供给冲击误判为政策冲击，而经典零约束虽稳健却遗漏短期效应。两种新方法（泰勒规则约束和外部工具）表现良好，表明货币政策真实效应比通常估计更大。
I argue that the seemingly disparate findings of the recent empirical literature on monetary policy transmission are all consistent with the same standard macro models. Weak sign restrictions, which suggest that contractionary monetary policy, if anything, boosts output, present as policy shocks what actually are expansionary demand and supply shocks. Classical zero restrictions are robust to such misidentification, but miss short-horizon effects. Two recent approaches—restrictions on Taylor rules and external instruments—instead work well. My findings suggest that empirical evidence is consistent with models in which the real effects of monetary policy are larger than commonly estimated.