Agricultural bankers’ farmland price expectations
利用芝加哥联储1993-2019年的调查数据，检验农业银行家对农田价格的预期是适应性的、理性的还是外推性的，发现他们外推近期价格但过于谨慎。
Abstract Previous studies provide conflicting evidence on the degree to which Federal Reserve surveys of agricultural bankers provide useful information on the future direction of farm real estate values. We use unbalanced panel of responses from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s Land Values and Credit Conditions Survey between 1993Q1 and 2019Q2 to empirically test adaptive, rational and extrapolative expectations. We find that respondents extrapolate recent farmland price experiences but are overly cautious, as observed farmland price changes tend to be greater than expected. This is the first study of individual farmland price expectations collected by Federal Reserve surveys of agricultural bankers.