Resolvable and Near‐epistemic Uncertainty in Stated Preference for Olive Oil: An Empirical Exploration
通过选择实验调查德国消费者对高品质意大利特级初榨橄榄油的偏好，开发计量框架处理可消解和近认知不确定性，发现边际概率和支付意愿估计对两种不确定性均稳健，且近认知反应受社会经济变量影响。
Abstract We elicit subjective probabilities of choice using a choice experiment designed to study preferences of German consumers for high quality Italian extra‐virgin olive oils. We develop an econometric framework to address the issues of resolvable and near‐epistemic uncertainty. Focussing on behaviourally meaningful quantities linked to changes in oil attributes, such as marginal probabilities and marginal willingness to pay, we found estimates of these quantities to be robust to both types of uncertainty from both discrete and fractional elicitation formats of the response variable. The frequency and presence of potentially near‐epistemic responses are explained by socio‐economic covariates, but their effects are not always in the same direction as in models of heteroskedastic choice, suggesting the existence of different sources. Rounding behaviour in subjective probabilities statements conforms with previous findings in the literature.