Punishing or rallying ‘round the flag? Heterogeneous effects of terrorism in South Tyrol
研究了1956至1991年间南蒂罗尔337起恐怖袭击对选举的影响，发现低烈度或针对警察的袭击削弱执政党支持，而高烈度或针对平民的袭击则引发团结效应，且致命袭击后对恐怖组织的支持显著下降。
Abstract This paper studies the electoral effects of terrorism by examining a rich panel dataset on the South Tyrolean case. A Northern and predominantly German‐speaking region of Italy, South Tyrol was the theater of a long war of attrition fought between the majority language group and the Italian state for autonomy and independence. Using detailed information on the whole record of 337 terrorist attacks occurring between 1956 and 1991, I find that (i) low‐scale terror or attacks which targeted police forces negatively affected incumbent support; (ii) high‐scale terror or attacks which targeted civilians or caused deaths were conducive of rally‐round‐the‐Italian‐flag momenta; (iii) support to terrorists sensibly drops after deadly attacks. These findings highlight the role of terror intensity and violence in driving the impact of terrorism on incumbent actors and terrorist organizations and help reconcile the coexistence of seemingly contradictory effects of terrorism documented in the literature.