Trade and the Diffusion of the Industrial Revolution
构建了一个适用于所有开放经济体的模型，描述世界实际GDP的演变，预测开放经济体的收入水平和增长率会趋同，并讨论了转型动态。
This paper proposes a model to describe the evolution of real gross domestic product (GDP) in the world economy that is intended to apply to all open economies. The parameters of the model are calibrated using evidence from Sachs and Warner on economies classed as open, from Parente and Prescott on economies that have successfully begun to develop, and from Kuznets and the World Bank on the employment share of agriculture in various times and places. The theory predicts convergence of the income levels and growth rates in the open economies and has strong but reasonable implications for transition dynamics.