Voter Mobilisation and Trust in Electoral Institutions: Evidence from Kenya
通过肯尼亚选举委员会的大规模随机实验，发现动员投票的短信提高了参与率，但降低了选民对选举机构的信任，尤其是输方和暴力地区。
Abstract In a large-scale randomised experiment implemented with Kenya’s Electoral Commission, text messages intended to mobilise voters boosted electoral participation. However, the messages also decreased trust in electoral institutions after the election. This decrease was stronger for individuals on the losing side and in areas that experienced election-related violence. We hypothesise that the mobilisation campaign backfired because the Electoral Commission promised a transparent and orderly electoral process but failed to deliver on these expectations. Several potential mechanisms account for the intervention’s unexpected effects, including a simple model where signalling capacity via mobilisation messages can negatively affect beliefs about election fairness.