The Persistent Effects of Initial Labor Market Conditions for Young Adults and Their Sources
综述了关于经济衰退期进入劳动力市场的年轻人长期后果的实证研究，发现初始冲击对收入、就业和社会结果有持续影响，并据此评估职业发展经济模型。
Unlucky young workers entering the labor market in recessions suffer a range of medium-to long-term consequences. This paper summarizes the findings of the growing empirical literature on this subject and uses it to assess economic models of career development. The literature finds large initial effects on earnings, labor supply, and wages that tend to fade after ten to fifteen years in the labor market, and that are accompanied by changes in occupation, job mobility, and employer characteristics. Adverse initial labor market entry also has persistent effects on a range of social outcomes, including timing and completed fertility, marriage and divorce, criminal activities, attitudes, and risky alcohol consumption. There is also evidence that early exposure to depressed labor market lowers health and raises mortality in middle age, patterns accompanied by a reopening of earnings gaps.