Predicting exchange rate crises
预测1980-1986年墨西哥每月发生货币危机的概率和预期贬值幅度，发现国内财政货币冲击、外部信贷冲击和相对价格冲击是主要诱因，减少国内信贷增长和不确定性可降低投机压力。
This paper predicts ex ante probabilities of currency crises and sizes of expected devaluations month by month for Mexico between 1980 and 1986. The forces contributing to speculative attacks on the Mexican peso include domestic fiscal and monetary shocks, external credit shocks and relative price shocks. Reducing domestic credit growth, increasing the uncertainty surrounding this growth, and reducing the size and perhaps increasing the frequency of currency realignments might have greatly reduced the amount of currency speculation against the peso between 1980 and 1986. Anticipated external credit supply shocks played a relatively minor role during Mexico's balance-of-payments crises.