The multifaceted impact of US trade policy on financial markets
研究美国贸易政策冲击对金融市场的多方面影响，发现限制性政策会负面冲击国内外股价、增加市场不确定性、降低利率并导致美元升值，且贸易政策不确定性的影响大于关税本身。
Summary We study the multifaceted effects of trade policy shocks on financial markets using a structural vector autoregression identified via event day heteroskedasticity. We find that restrictive US trade policy shocks affect US and international stock prices heterogeneously, but generally negatively. They increase market uncertainty, lower US interest rates, and lead to an appreciation of the US dollar. The effects are significant for several weeks or quarters. Decomposing the trade policy shocks further suggests that trade policy uncertainty dominates tariff level effects. Chinese trade policy shocks against the United States further hurt US stocks.