The Influence of Choice Context on Consumers’ Preference for GM Orange Juice
通过三组实验发现，选择情境（有无替代品）会影响消费者对橙汁原产地和转基因属性的偏好，转基因橙汁虽占市场多数份额，但可能降低整体购买意愿。
Abstract The absence or presence of an alternative in a choice set may change the relative preference and predicted market share results. In this study, three groups of experiments are performed to determine if choice context influences consumer preference for orange juice from different countries of origin and using different production methods. Our results show that our participants consider that the importance of country of origin (United States over Brazil) outweighs production method (GM or non‐GM) when they are obliged to trade off between the two attributes among limited options. However, market price for US orange juice might decrease compared to a market with only non‐GM orange juice (from both countries). Our market share projections show that even with decreased willingness to pay, US GM orange juice would still account for the majority of the orange juice market (53%). With unlimited choices (US GM orange juice is added to US and Brazilian non‐GM orange juice), US GM orange juice takes more market share from US non‐GM than Brazilian orange juice. This combination of findings highlights the importance of inclusion or exclusion of alternatives in choice experiments. In both scenarios, having GM orange juice in the market increases the proportion of people who choose not to purchase any juice, possibly indicating an increased distrust due to the introduction of GM technology. Adoption of GM technology in the citrus industry (if found to be a cost effective solution for a very costly disease) would depend on the overall market effects on both supply and demand.