The information content of target price forecasts: Evidence from mergers and acquisitions
研究了分析师目标价格在并购中的信息价值，发现高目标价格的公司更可能成为收购目标，且目标价格溢价与收购方公告回报正相关，基于目标价格的交易策略能产生显著收益。
Abstract This paper investigates the informativeness and value relevance of analyst target prices in the context of mergers and acquisitions. Our results indicate that firms with high 12‐month ahead target prices relative to current stock prices are more likely to become a takeover target and offer premium, and acquirers’ announcement returns are positively associated with firms’ target price premium. We also show that a long‐short trading strategy formed on target prices and firms’ takeover likelihood generates economically significant returns. Our results are robust to a battery of additional analysis, and the informativeness of target prices is not subsumed by other analyst forecast outputs such as earnings forecasts and recommendations. Overall, our findings suggest that analysts convey valuable information through target price forecasts, which are useful for participants in the corporate takeover markets.