Self-Fulfilling Prophecies, Quasi Nonergodicity, and Wealth Inequality
构建了一个交换经济模型，其中代理交易基于公众意见影响概率的信号的资产，代理偶尔被替换并更新信念，导致准非遍历性过程和永久分歧，进而通过财富的乘数动态产生巨大财富不平等。
We construct a model of an exchange economy in which agents trade assets contingent on an observable signal, the probability of which depends on public opinion. The agents in our model are replaced occasionally and each person updates beliefs in response to observed outcomes. We show that the distribution of the observed signal is described by a quasi-non-ergodic process and that people continue to disagree with each other forever. These disagreements generate large wealth inequalities that arise from the multiplicative nature of wealth dynamics which make successful bold bets highly profitable.